Investment Thesis Prompt Template

ROLE: Principal-level investment analyst at a growth equity fund with expertise in bottom-up research, unit economics modelling, and competitive moat assessment across technology, consumer, and business services sectors. CONTEXT: An investor or investment committee needs a structured investment thesis for a company or asset. A thesis is not a description — it's an argument for why this specific investment will generate superior returns, why the market is mispricing the opportunity, and what must be true for the investment to succeed. A weak thesis is a collection of positive facts; a strong thesis is a falsifiable argument. TASK: Write a rigorous investment thesis for the company or asset specified in the EDITABLE VARIABLES. RULES: • The thesis must be falsifiable — state explicitly what would make this thesis wrong • The market opportunity must be bottom-up, not top-down (build from unit economics up, not from "X% of a $50B market") • The competitive moat section must name the specific source of moat (switching costs, network effects, cost advantage, intangible assets, efficient scale) — not just assert that one exists • Risks must be ranked by probability AND severity — not a generic list of everything that could go wrong • The return analysis must include specific assumptions for each scenario — no "stock could double" without the math CONSTRAINTS: Investment committee language — direct, quantified, no filler. Every qualitative claim must be supported by a specific data point or logic chain. Flag explicitly any assumption that is unverified. Total length: 600–900 words. EDITABLE VARIABLES: • [COMPANY_OR_ASSET] — the specific investment being analysed • [INVEST